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See past reports and recent analysis from the StoneX Market Intelligence team by clicking the links below.

U.S. Industrial Policy Has Crossed a Line That Markets Cannot Ignore

As state-led industrial investment pushes China's current account surplus past $1 trillion, the United States has responded with subsidies, tariffs and direct government stakes in private companies, each step moving further from the free trade principles that defined its economic policy for a century. Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, argues this is not a temporary deviation from orthodoxy but a structural realignment that markets have yet to fully price in.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Currencies

Iran, China and the Unconfirmed Promises Keeping Grain Traders Guessing

With Iranian asset releases unverified and China's soybean purchase commitments untested, grain markets are trading on assumptions rather than confirmed flows. Arlan Suderman breaks down why the verification gap is the most consequential variable facing U.S. commodity prices right now.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Core PCE Could Tip the S&P 500 Into a Lower Low This Week

The S&P 500 is at a critical technical juncture after a 1.8% weekly decline driven by tech sector selling and rising Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Core PCE inflation data is the immediate swing factor, with the potential to either confirm a bearish breakdown or reignite the case for new record highs.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Equities

Europe's Heatwave Creates Grain Market Surprises

A European heatwave is creating very different outcomes across grain markets. While maize faces heightened production risks, some traders believe wheat quality could improve, potentially creating export opportunities that few anticipated at the start of the season.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Oil Traders Turn From War Risks to Dollar Strength

Crude oil markets are rapidly shifting their focus away from geopolitical headlines and back toward macroeconomic fundamentals. As conflict-driven risk premiums disappear, traders are reassessing the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, interest rate expectations, and key technical support levels on the next phase of oil price direction.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Energy

U.S. Inflation Risks Strengthen the Dollar Trade

Persistent inflation pressures are becoming the dominant force in currency markets as traders reassess the outlook for U.S. interest rates. With inflation still running well above the Federal Reserve's target, upcoming economic data could determine whether dollar strength extends into the second half of 2026.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Currencies

Phosphate Market Faces a Cost Floor That Demand Destruction Alone Cannot Break

When the Strait of Hormuz restricts the movement of anhydrous and sulfur, phosphate manufacturers face input costs that make lower prices commercially impossible. Josh Linville explains why the structural cost floor embedded in phosphate production is preventing the market correction that growers need.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Fertilizers

Dollar Strength Masks Improving Signals for Gold

Gold remains under pressure from a resurgent U.S. dollar, but several market indicators suggest bearish momentum may be losing force. While currency strength continues to weigh on precious metals, positioning and sentiment data point to a more balanced outlook than recent price action alone would suggest.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Precious Metals

Why Markets Now Expect Higher Interest Rates Again

Investors are rapidly reassessing the outlook for U.S. interest rates as Federal Reserve officials signal a more restrictive stance than markets had anticipated. The shift reflects not only changing policy expectations but also a broader transformation in how the Federal Reserve communicates with financial markets.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Interest Rates

Tech Stocks Face a Valuation Reckoning as Rate Expectations Harden

Rising interest rates are exposing a structural vulnerability at the heart of the AI equity trade, where much of the investment case rests on earnings expected years into the future. As the Federal Reserve reinforces its hawkish stance and capital requirements across the AI buildout mount, investors are applying a far more demanding standard to technology valuations.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Equities

Federal Reserve Signals Keep Pressure on the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen remains under pressure as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook and the likelihood of U.S. interest rates remaining elevated for longer. While intervention risks continue to loom over USD/JPY, monetary policy expectations remain the dominant force driving currency markets.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Currencies

Why UK Borrowing Surge Narrows the Next Prime Minister's Options

The UK's deteriorating public finances are becoming a more important constraint on economic policy than day-to-day political developments. Rising borrowing levels and increased scrutiny from bond markets mean that whoever succeeds Keir Starmer is likely to inherit limited room for fiscal manoeuvre.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Fixed Income
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