Spot month gas prices settled lower Wednesday on depressed LNG feedgas demand and steadily rising output. The downside was limited by forecasts projecting stronger demand as intense heat and record temps continue across much of the West and will soon span the entire country. makes its way across much of the US during the second half of July. Aug NG settled 1.5 cents lower at $2.329.
Freeport remained shut for a 4th day yesterday as damage continues to be assessed while much of the area remains without power. Freeport LNG is scheduled to receive minimal flows today.
LNG feedgas demand is back down this morning to 11 BCF/day, 0.3 BCF/day lower than Wednesday.
Today’s storage report is expected to have minimal impact on the storage surplus. Expectations call for a build of 55 BCF for the week ended July 5. This compares to both last year and the 5 yr avg build of 57 BCF.
Very low injections are expected over the coming 2 weeks could provide some near to medium term support. Expectations for the oversupply to remain in place thru injection season remains bearish long term.
Total demand has trended higher the past few days in conjunction with stronger power burn. Demand this morning is coming in at 105.5 BCF/day, down from this week’s peak of 106.9 BCF/day on Tuesday.
Prices are trading lower this morning as the market awaits storage data and on whether Freeport LNG is close to restarting.
The August 24 natural gas contract is currently down .020 ahead of today’s EIA storage report after closing Wednesday at 2.329, down .015.
The August contract held above 50% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend at 2.325 for a 3rd day on Wednesday.
A close under 2.325 will turn the 68.1% retracement at 2.120 into the next downside objective.
The 10 and 200 day moving averages on the daily continuation chart have converged at 2.430-2.450 and are primary resistance.
Longer term resistance is the 40 day moving average currently at 2.650. A close over both areas of resistance are needed to turn the trend back higher.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 37.99
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