Forex Seasonality – June 2024: Potential for EUR/USD and AUD/USD Rallies, USD/CAD Drop
- June has historically been the 3rd-best month of the year for EUR/USD and AUD/USD.
- GBP/USD has fallen -0.3% in June since 1971 – will we see a pullback this year?
- USD/JPY has seen small average moves in June since Bretton Woods, but intramonth volatility can still be notable as we saw in May.
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Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart
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Historically, June has been a bullish month for EUR/USD, with an average return of +0.52% across the month over the last 50+ years. After a strong month of May (+1.52% as of writing, the strongest of 2024 so far), EUR/USD bulls will be hoping the world’s most widely-traded currency pair can build on its gains heading into the summer.
British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart
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Looking at the above chart, GBP/USD has historically seen negative performance in June, with average returns of around -0.3% since 1971. Cable did manage to buck May’s seasonal tendency for weakness by rising over the last month, but given the pair’s tendency to generally underperform through the summer, some traders will be looking at the May rally with skepticism.
Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart
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June has historically been a quiet month for USD/JPY, with the pair showing its 2nd-smallest average movement (-0.10%) since the Bretton Woods agreement. Of course, it’s worth noting that these moves only highlight the beginning-to-end net movement in a currency pair, potentially masking the intra-month volatility; we saw this exact dynamic play out in May, where USD/JPY is set to close down less than -1% but saw a 600-pip swoon on BOJ intervention in the interim.
Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart
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Turning our attention Down Under, AUD/USD has historically seen its 3rd-best performance in June, rising by an average of 0.14% in the month over the last 50+ years. AUD/USD shrugged off its general tendency to fall in May this year, gaining about +2.5% as of writing for the best month of 2024 so far. AUD/USD bulls will be looking for a definitive break above 0.6650 to set the stage for more gains toward 0.6900 resistance next.
Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart
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