Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 21

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 21 – It’s Day #2 of Trump 2.0, and Wall Street is waiting to see what new executive orders will provide direction today, while continuing to digest Monday’s activities and headlines. Stock futures generally reflected a positive response to what traders have seen and heard from the Trump Administration thus far, which has carried over into this morning’s trade. The VIX is trading below 16 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 108.5 as it recovers a portion of what it lost yesterday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.56% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.25%. Crude oil prices are 2% lower on Trump’s emphasis on increasing drilling, while the grain and oilseed sector is mostly higher on expectations of increased trade with China.

The United States constitution allows the people to hit the reset button every four years – something that creates a continuously frustrating political environment, but which also allows for a peaceful change in direction when so desired. A president cannot serve more than two terms, which typically happens in succession. The American people have hit the reset button every four years in recent history, which may say something about our fickle nature. In this case, we went back to something that we’d already had in the past, which is rare. Wall Street would like to think that we went back to what worked after dabbling with alternative options. We know what to expect with Trump 2.0, since we’ve already gone through Trump 1.0 previously. But in some ways, Trump 2.0 may be much different, as President Trump changes directions on how he reaches his objectives, having learned from the first time about what did and did not work. Regardless, America takes pride in its ability to peacefully transition power from one administration to the other, even though that transition often times looks messy.

President Trump made it clear in his inauguration address that he planned to quickly undo much of what had been done by the Biden Administration. He wasted little time in signing executive orders to do just that. He shut the southern U.S. border to illegal immigration, while starting to evict some of the criminal element portion of the 10 million people who are estimated to have come across the border over the past four years. Trump also pulled the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord, as well as the World Health Organization. He established a Department of Government Efficiency to find ways to cut government spending, while putting a freeze on any new federal hiring or new regulations until his administration was able to get people in place to assess the needs. The Biden Administration’s mandate of moving the country toward electric vehicles is now dead, although Trump promised to resurrect the U.S. auto industry so that consumers can buy the car that they want, rather than what they are mandated. Most notably though, no executive orders were signed for implementing new tariffs, as many had feared, although it’s being reported that he plans to do so for Canada and Mexico by February 1^st.

The markets reacted positively to his business growth agenda, in addition to the absence of new tariff initiatives on his first day in office. Traders are still braced for the possibility of significant tariffs, but they hope that there will be a more measured approach to the application of his tariff initiatives. Trump is moving forward with the establishment of an External Revenue Service for the collection of revenues from other countries, such as collecting these tariffs. However, there is a hope that the tariffs will be more targeted.

Trump may visit China later this year. That was one of the noteworthy statements made in passing during his executive order signing / impromptu press conference on Monday evening. He again stated that he had very good conversations with President Xi Jinping of China, indicating that he has re-established the working relationship that he and Xi had in his first administration. I previously stated late last year that we were hearing speculation on the ground in China about the possibility of a trade agreement. It might make sense for China to agree to buy more agricultural commodities from the United States in order to get more favorable tariff treatment on the much larger segment of consumer goods that China wants to export to the States. That would mean paying higher prices for U.S. commodities, since our strong dollar makes our corn, soybeans, etc. much more expensive relative to buying from Brazil or Ukraine. Yet, that might still be the thing to do – using those purchases to build their reserves over the next four years of the Trump Administration – while appeasing Trump to allow the imports of Chinese consumer goods into the States. It may be one of the reasons why Trump has eased his stance on TikTok, while also talking respectful of Xi and speaking of traveling to China. As for China’s part, we heard unconfirmed rumors on Friday of Chinese corn purchases, while it also appears to be buying modest amounts of U.S. soybeans for its reserves. I wouldn’t expect such a trade agreement – if it happens – to last beyond the next four years while Trump is in office, but it could sustain demand for U.S. commodities over the next several years if it happens. I would not expect this to be a commodity boom for the States, but perhaps enough to keep demand somewhat stabilized.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2025 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Globality

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.

Tell us about yourself. Are you a:

First name

Last name

Company

Country

Province/Region

By submitting this form, you are sending StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries your personal information to be used for marketing purposes. View our Privacy notice to learn more.

First name

Last name

Company

Account number

Account holder name (if different from above)

By submitting this form, you are sending StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries your personal information to be used for marketing purposes. View our Privacy notice to learn more.

Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 21

Discover more insights

Top Third Closing Audio Comments

Top Third Opening Audio Comments

Brazil Weather Forecast