Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst
January 9 – Government offices and the stock market are both closed today for a national day of mourning with President Carter’s national funeral service at the Washington National Cathedral this morning. The event will bring together all five living Presidents for the first time since George H.W. Bush’s death in 2018. The former governor of Georgia and ultimate humanitarian served as the 39th U.S. President from 1977 to 1981 before being defeated by Ronald Reagan, but he went on to live until the age of 100 – the longest-lived president in U.S. history. Regardless of the side of the aisle, the country can come together today to celebrate an incredible life well-lived.
The Dow Jones Industrials rebounded a bit yesterday after two straight minor losing sessions to start out the week. The market is processing a slew of jobs data this week, capped off by nonfarm payrolls tomorrow which is expected to rise just 165k for December, compared to a +227k in November. The U.S. unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.2%. Private sector job creation slowed by more than expected yesterday and wages grew at the slowest pace in almost 3 ½ years per ADP, but unemployment claims also came in below expectations per the Labor Department. Tomorrow’s jobs numbers will be watched extremely closely by the trade and Federal Reserve Policymakers alike. December Fed minutes released yesterday showed that “many” Fed officials supported gradual interest rate cuts in 2025, even as inflation numbers struggle to get down to the desired 2% level.
The U.S. dollar hit more than two-year highs late last week before declining into Monday, but the greenback has been back eyeing those highs since. It was reported yesterday that President-elect Trump was considering declaring a national emergency in order to provide legal justification for widespread tariffs. Treasury yields continue to rise on the chances that Trump’s policies further boost U.S. growth and reignite inflation. The trade is finding it tough to determine what will be fact and what will be just talk as we head into inauguration, but there’s no question that DJT speculation is providing the marketplace plenty of fodder either way…
The grains are mostly lower this morning heading into a short session and a slow fundamental data day, with export sales delayed until tomorrow due to the funeral, leaving a pile of data to digest tomorrow morning including the key January USDA date. Corn continues to hold up solidly in the face of any widespread declines, clearly holding the most bullish fundamental story ahead of report; further declines in yield and production are expected with increased demand likely as well, all leading to an expected 60+ million bushel carryout compared to December. The charts below show price action of the March corn and soybean contracts on the January USDA dates since 1990; increasing volatility was the trend early on in the “ethanol era”, but CH moves have been more subdued since 2014. Soybeans have seen a bit more action in the past decade, including eight straight session gains from 2016-2023.
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