Fonte: StoneX cmdtyView.
FX/Brazilian Real (Foreign Exchange)This week was marked by volatility in currency markets following mixed economic data from the U.S., which did not alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in this month’s decision. In Brazil, investors monitored news about the progress of the government’s economic measures package in Congress. The U.S. dollar traded in the interbank market ended this Friday’s session (Dec. 6) at R$ 6.077, up 1.26% for the week, 1.26% for the month, and 25.5% for the year. Meanwhile, the dollar index closed Friday’s trading session at 106.0 points, up +0.2% for the week, +0.2% for the month, and +4.6% for the year.
SOYBEANSoybean prices fluctuated between losses and gains last week but managed to end the period in the green, with the January/25 contract closing the week at US¢ 993.75/bu, up 0.4% for the week. Bullish factors, such as strong export sales in the U.S. and increased imports by India, supported the market. However, favorable weather across most soybean-growing regions in Brazil and Argentina has limited price gains in Chicago. The latest WASDE report, released on Tuesday (Dec. 10), showed a slightly lower stock-to-use ratio for soybeans compared to last month, but it did not present significant new insights.
CORNCorn Rebounds in Chicago, Supported by Strong Export Sales
Corn futures appreciated last week, with the March/25 contract closing Friday at US¢ 440.00/bu, up 1.6% for the week. The market continues to track robust U.S. export volumes, particularly to Mexico. Additionally, attention remains on the South American harvest. However, with smaller acreage in Argentina and Brazil concentrating most of its production in the second harvest, traders are awaiting the start of the safrinha planting season. Favorable weather for both soybean and corn crops across much of Brazil could result in good productivity levels. On the B3 exchange, corn futures followed Chicago’s movement, with gains amplified by the weakening exchange rate. The January/25 contract ended Friday at R$ 73.97/bag (+3.2%).
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VEGETABLE OILSAfter experiencing significant volatility throughout November, vegetable oil prices rose in early December, particularly for soybean oil. Preliminary data on India’s November imports showed an increase, alongside USDA figures for soybean oil crushing and consumption in the U.S., new American export sales, and speculation about the future of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The January/24 soybean oil contract closed at USD 43.0/t, up 2.9%.
Palm oil also saw gains, supported by higher Indian import forecasts, lower estimated Malaysian stock levels, and adverse weather in the second-largest global producer, which poses risks to the harvest. The January/25 contract closed at USD 1,186/t, up 2.8% for the week.
FERTILIZERSUrea prices in Brazil rose in recent days amid speculation that India might announce a new tender soon, sustaining international market quotations. In the phosphate market, MAP prices remained stable for another week despite reports of reduced demand in Brazil. Finally, increased interest in potash trading led to higher KCl prices compared to the previous week.
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SUGAR AND ETHANOLDespite more mills entering the off-season in Brazil’s Center-South region, ethanol prices remained flat, with hydrated ethanol priced at R$ 3.15/liter (including taxes) in Ribeirão Preto (SP). CEPEA indicators also showed stability, ranging from R$ 2.62-2.63/L (net of taxes).
COFFEECoffee futures prices started last week with steep losses in both New York and London. In New York, heavy contract liquidation led to a 2200-point (-6.9%) decline for the March contract, while London saw an even sharper drop of 10.6%. Prices recovered for the rest of the week.
Arabica coffee futures rose 1220 points (3.8%) to US¢ 330.25/lb in New York, while London prices ended the week down USD 261/ton (4.9%), closing at USD 5,116/ton. High price volatility was notable, with weekly highs and lows differing by US¢ 41.65/lb (14.4%) in New York and USD 802/ton (17.8%) in London.
COCOABetween Nov. 29 and Dec. 6, cocoa futures extended their upward trajectory, with the March/2025 contract achieving its sixth consecutive weekly gain, up 56% since Oct. 25. This reflects heightened concerns over the 2024/25 West African harvest, marked by increasing climate irregularities since September and reports of challenges in production development. In a context of historically low global stocks, fears of reduced bean deliveries from the region are driving short-term price pressures.
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OILBrent futures ended last week down 2.5%, trading at USD 71.12/bbl on Friday (Dec. 6). WTI futures mirrored this trend, falling 1.18% to USD 67.2/bbl. Oil prices extended their previous week’s losses due to pessimistic global demand forecasts and risk aversion among investors, pushing Brent to its lowest level in three weeks. This occurred despite OPEC+ confirming its production resumption delay until April 2025.
DIESEL GASOLINE
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