02/03/2025 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- Egypt has kept its foot on the gas in terms of urea pricing
- This morning, $442 was sold for February loading
- Hard to believe that in early January, Mopco set the low with $358 sold for 6K tons
- It has been an almost straight line higher since that point with global supplies as tight as they have been
- Dangote (Nigeria) also has gotten into the mix with a couple of vessels sold at $410
- Continue to believe we will see Iranian production back online in the coming weeks, though I have nothing official to point to
- China remains the biggest question mark
- If they return, it could certainly take all the winds out of the markets sails
- But as long as they are absent, the world is tight
- Paper trades today
- No trades observed
North America
- Tariffs – the biggest talking point of the morning
- Folks are freaking out about a possible tariff on potash
- All, potash is pretty low priced
- If there is a product that can withstand a tariff rate, it is potash
- A percentage of a small number is a small number
- There has been plenty of chance for folks to lock stuff up before all of this happened
- Now we wait
- So what is the tariff stories?
- Potash
- this will hurt the U.S side given its reliance on Canadian potash
- There simply isn’t enough time to shift U.S. import flows from elsewhere around the world
- We have to get everything left needed from Canada at this point
- Urea
- This will be a pain point for both nations farmers given that we “share” product in the west/east
- NH3
- There is a LOT of NH3 that flows south into the U.S.
- However, the vast majority of this is likely consumed by industrial buyers or N manufacturers needing it to upgrade
- Phosphate
- This would hurt Canadian farmers if Canada puts tariffs on U.S. products as retaliation
- A percentage of a big number is still a relatively big number
- Phosphate is the one fertilizer input that can ill afford a tariff
- Potash
- Ultimately, we still do not know the tariff story
- Mexico and the U.S. have already found common ground and have delayed the tariffs
- Mexico agreed to put 10,000 troops on the border
- Nothing new for Canada/U.S., but there is supposed to be a conversation between Trudeau and Trump
- Hopefully that conversation will bring at least a delay and hopefully put all of this behind us
- Mexico and the U.S. have already found common ground and have delayed the tariffs
- Paper trades today
- February NOLA Urea at $390-$390 (up $3.5 from Friday’s settlement)
- Physical trades today
- February NOLA Urea at $380 (unchanged from Friday’s trade)
- February NOLA DAP at $588-$588-$588 (up $6 from Thursday’s trade)
- March NOLA Urea at $390-$390-$390-$390 (up $4 from Friday’s trade)
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