01/23/2025 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- RCF (India) released its first round of information that west coast offers totaled 1.29M and east coast offers totaled 1.37M
- That was it
- That was the update
- That is all they had to offer
- …seriously…
- So now the market is still sitting back and waiting for real information to be released
- Something of note:
- West coast – 1.29M tons offered vs the 1M ton purchase goal
- Going to make it very difficult for them to reach their goal
- East coast – 1.37M tons offered vs the 500K ton purchase goal
- Should be a little easier to lock in their needs…but remember that China still doesn’t look like they are playing ball
- West coast – 1.29M tons offered vs the 1M ton purchase goal
- The underlying feel is that urea prices should continue to appreciate…but time will tell
- Chinese exports still missing
- Iranian production still offline (when do they return and will the market calm down when they do?)
- European production situation hasn’t changed
- Still a lot of missing tons
- Paper trades today
- No trades observed
North America
- I am still nervous that urea has more upside to it:
- Chinese exports still missing from the world – 10% global export market gone
- Iranian production still offline – another 10% global export market gone while offline
- European production still slow (75% of normal) – 3+M tons gone
- N.A. demand growing as corn acre expectations rise
- Corn/grain values are rising
- U.S. gov’t farmer checks should be going out
- NOLA urea still trading $360’s vs current Middle East replacement values in $380’s
- U.S. imports have been slower and no signs Dec/Jan data will improve
- If I am nervous that urea has more upside, you know the POV regarding UAN and NH3
- However, urea isn’t exactly “out of line” vs recent history (since our current new nitrogen market after N.A. debottleneck and new production came online)
- When you look at current values vs all weekly values going back to 2018, current prices are actually on the lower side of the normal range
- I know that isn’t going to fill anyone with confidence
- Also likely isn’t going to make farmers feel any better
- I just find it interesting!!!
- Phosphate is continuing to hold steady
- It is high…but with supplies still tight and demand rising, hard to bet against it
- Potash remains the biggest winner out there
- Very well priced vs most comparisons
- Only hit one can make is that manufacturers are still making solid margins
- Still, it is on the lower edge of normal range going back to 2018
- Also very well priced vs corn values
- Solid opportunity to build soil levels at an attractive price/value
- Paper trades today
- January NOLA Urea at $355 (up $1.5 from yesterday’s settlement)
- February NOLA DAP at $582 (down $9.5 from yesterday’s settlement)
- March NOLA Urea at $368 (down $2 from yesterday’s settlement)
- April NOLA Urea at $355 (down $5 from yesterday’s settlement)
- Physical trades today
- February NOLA Urea at $365 (down $2.5 from trade on 01/17/25)
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