12/13/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- The week is ending as the week started with higher urea sales being reported
- Monday had seen Egyptian sellers hitting $374 - $376 on small blocks
- This morning, hearing $384 - $387 has set current volumes
- Now, there needs to be a question of how long demand will stay persistent
- If buyers start to shy away, will prices hold and/or decline?
- Or will manufacturers be sold enough to be patient?
- Lot of that might come down to how India plays out
- Speaking of India, offers are due the 19th so we should get news starting next Thursday
- Should be interesting to see how next week plays out
- Paper trades today
- January NOLA AG @ $364 (down $1 from yesterday’s settlement)
- January Brazil Urea @ $367 (up $6 from yesterday’s settlement)
North America
- Nothing terribly exciting, but nitrogen prices end the week continuing to climb
- Keep in mind that even with this week’s strength, it still doesn’t change the NOLA/Middle East price comparison
- NOLA is merely keeping up with Middle East price appreciation
- NOLA is still a discount to the world
- When supplies are more than adequate, you can expect some spot vessels to arrive even when we are a discount
- However, if global supplies are as tight as we think they are going to be, then manufacturers/traders can be choosy
- In that case, why send excess vessels to a discount market?
- Our outlook on phosphate isn’t one that is hugely bullish, but I still struggle with much to any bearishness
- Global supplies are still tight given Chinese export programs which could get worse/tighter
- NOLA DAP continues to be a discount to India/Brazil
- While current values vs next year corn prices are setting some of the highest Jan/Feb values ever seen, demand doesn’t seem to be backing off
- Just seems like there are a lot more bullish avenues than bearish
- Otherwise, fall application continues for a lot of the Midwest. Might have been odd timing this fall…but at least we are getting our window.
- Paper trades today
- February NOLA Urea @ $345 (up $6 from yesterday’s settlement)
- March NOLA Urea @ $346 (up $1.5 from yesterday’s settlement)
- Physical trades today
-
- December NOLA Urea @ $333/$335/$335/$335/$338 (up $8 from yesterday’s trade)
- January NOLA Urea @ $334/$335/$337/$337/$338/$338 (up $8 from yesterday’s trade)
- March NOLA Urea @ $345 (up $2 from yesterday’s trade)
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