12/09/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
First, a correction to this morning’s update. I had said that offers were due on the 12th. I did the American thing and looked at it wrong. It was listed as 19/12/2024. Offers are due on the 19th!!!!
International
- Not much in the way of market news outside of the India purchase tender announcement
- Was a bit surprised to see that Egyptian urea price ideas had firmed to just over $370 to finish last week
- They had been one of the major manufacturing points that still had 2024 tons to sell
- As their prices had fallen, it really seemed to weigh on global price ideas
- Now that they have found their footing and appear to be selling tons into January, it should help clean up that side
- Outside of some “special” places like Iran, that should mop up most of 2024
- Paper trades today
- December Egypt Urea @ $373 (down $1 from Friday's settlement)
- January Egypt Urea @ $374 (down $1 from Friday's settlement)
North America
- Surprised to see an MAP barge in the gulf trading at $600
- Those price ideas have been closer to $630 in recent weeks/months
- However, NOLA DAP prices have remained relatively unchanged with bids at $565 and offers at $570 for January
- Nice to see that gap closing much closer to “normal”
- However, there is still nothing great about phosphate values
- These are still some of the worst values ever seen when compared against corn values
- That does NOT mean that demand has been severely impacted
- For a lot of feedback, the opposite has been true…where they can run
- Just helps to show how out of line values are today
- Lastly, NH3 has made up GREAT ground in the last week
- Here at home, we are done with our ground and only have a few more days of custom application
- Looking at the forecast, we are going to get to our finish line
- It certainly was not a normal route, but we will take the wins where we can get them
- Overall, for the market, feels like we are around 75% of our forecasted 2.1 – 2.2M tons
- Glancing thru a lot of Midwest forecasts, it doesn’t look like there is going to be much of a hiccup to the run
- Going thru to the end of the long-range outlook shows Sunday/Monday in the upper-40’s/lower 50’s here in KC
- We may not hit 100%...but looks like we are going to be one heck of a lot closer than we feared only a few short weeks ago
- Paper trades today
- December NOLA Urea at $317/$317 (up $2.5 from Friday's settlement)
- February NOLA Urea at $330 (up $3 from Friday's settlement)
- March NOLA Urea at $336 (up $3.5 from Friday's settlement)
- Physical trades today
- December NOLA MAP at $600
- January NOLA Urea at $320
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