11/7/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- Hopefully we will start next week with decent India urea purchase tender news
- With IPL handling the tender, they usually do well at getting the information out quickly
- Going to be interesting how it plays
- Targeting 1M tons
- West coast focus
- Shipment thru December 25
- ...is there enough at these current lower prices to fill their need or will they fall short and we immediately start discussing yet ANOTHER tender?
- Paper trades yesterday
- November CFR Brazil Urea Paper - $351
- December CFR Brazil Urea Paper - $352.50
- Paper trades today
- December CFR Brazil Urea Paper - $345 / $348 / $348
- December Egypt Urea Paper - $356
North America
- Now that the Department of Commerce phosphate vote is completed, seems a lot of the discussion is now revolving around what fertilizer looks like under the Trump administration
- For tariff's, it isn't great
- Remember that it was the Trump administration that placed a 25% tariff on all Chinese fertilizer imports
- He sees tariffs as a very powerful economic weapon/tool
- No reason to believe that will change
- So if tariffs start being a bigger discussion point, what gets hurt the worst? What is the worst case scenarios?
- China
- Fortunately, anything multiplied by zero is still zero
- There are no Chinese imports into the U.S. marketplace today
- So fresh increased tenders there do not change the fundamentals
- Russia
- Fortunately, Trump and Putin seem to have a better relationship than with the Biden administration
- That does not mean they are friends, but there is a mutual respect
- The question in my mind is how is that relationship going to work in respect to Ukraine
- If common ground can be found, no issue
- But if not and tensions rise further, how does that affect fertilizer?
- If the U.S. imposes fertilizer tariffs on Russia, it affects N, P and K
- However, then it comes down to whether Russia can find other homes outside of the U.S.
- Sure seems like that is the case in all things...except UAN
- UAN is the one that would spook me for N.A. farmers
- U.S. manufacturers have enjoyed having the European market open to their product due to production rates being lower
- However, UAN price ideas need to stay competitive with Russian imports keeping them honest
- If Russian UAN gets tariffed to the point it can no longer come, U.S. companies will celebrate
- They then have the opportunity to sell either Europe or N.A.
- ...and they do not need to worry about import competition
- I've put images of U.S. imports of the major fertilizers below to show Russia's participation (or in phosphate's case, lack of)
- Paper trades yesterday
- December NOLA Urea Paper - $320
- January NOLA Urea Paper - $325
- February NOLA Urea Paper - $328
- March NOLA Urea Paper - $335
- April NOLA Urea Paper - $335
- Paper trades today
- January NOLA Urea Paper - $321
- January NOLA DAP Paper - $575
- Physical trades yesterday
- November NOLA Urea Physical - $308 / $308 / $308
- Physical trades today
- November NOLA Urea Physical - $308 / $308 / $308 / $308
- Dec 15 - Jan 15 NOLA Urea Physical - $317 / $317 / $317
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