11/5/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- Biggest discussion point today remains on the Belarusian commentary about cutting potash production rates due to the current low pricing
- Personally, I'm not as worried if it is just Belarus that makes a cut...but if they get Russia to do the same
- 2023 potash exports
- Canada - 23M
- Russia - 11M
- Belarus - 5.2M
- However, if we go back to 2021 before the world went haywire
- Canada - 21.6M
- Russia - 10M
- Belarus - 10M
- Belarus has continued to make gains this year to return to normal export levels so a 10% cut is real tonnage...but still come back to thinking they need "help"
- On the urea side, the market continues its normal progressions thru the India tender
- Keep in mind that offers are due Monday
- Hopefully that means we get offer info on Monday as well
- Paper trades today
- December Egypt Urea Paper - $355 / $355
North America
- Another NOLA urea physical barge traded this morning at $312 after hearing of a couple at $310 directly
- This continues to reflect a hefty discount to world replacement values
- Today, that is no big deal
- There are plenty of weeks/months between now and spring
- However, eventually we will need to call tonnages
- Speaking of imports, you likely saw Mike's flash report of U.S. September trade data
- Urea imports were only 118K tons
- The yearly cumulative total sits at 456K
- Now, some folks are going to point to the 3-year average of imports and show how far behind we are
- They are not wrong...but the 3-year average is wrong
- We are forecasting a "need" of around 5.1 to 5.2M tons needed to be imported
- That is vs the 3-year average of 5.7M
- Just something to keep in mind on conversations
- We have plenty of time...but need to get started at some point
- Paper trades today
- December NOLA Urea Paper - $318 / $318
- January NOLA Urea Paper - $322 / $322
- Physical trades today
- November NOLA Urea Physical - $312
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