10/9/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- Continues to look like India is going to fall well short of secured tonnage expectations
- Originally, it had been a wide range of estimates
- Some as low as 500K
- Some as high as 1M
- Given the ridiculous west coast L1 value, we can say with a large amount of certainty that India will only secure 50K for that coast
- The east coast was a bit tighter on offered values (because there was not a ridiculously low value set), but still question of how many tons will be purchased
- RCF has countered all east coast offers which doesn't fill us with confidence that higher priced offers are relenting
- Several have speculated that India will end with 150 - 250K secured
- So what would a 150 - 250K secured scenario look like?
- Very likely we see a quick turnaround tender announcement
- Shipment window should encompass the remainder of 2024
- This "should" wipe out any remaining excess tonnages for 2024
- That puts global manufacturers on the front foot heading into 2025
- Star the year low on inventories
- Northern Hemisphere spring demand will be forced forward
- Puts them in the drivers seat
- Of course, anything can happen (*cough, cough* China) but this is the POV today
- Continue to hear India purchasing more phosphate from the world
- Surprising, we are not seeing values rally as originally feared (thank goodness)
- Seems that CFR values remain in the $640's
- However, that can change in a hurry
Paper trades yesterday
- None observed
Paper trades today
- November Middle East Urea Paper - $370 (no open interest so no settlement to compare)
North America
- We continue to monitor Hurricane Milton
- At the moment, it looks like the eye will be going just south of Tampa...though Tampa is still in the range of possibilities
- Whether a direct Tampa shot or not, damage is going to be severe
- The south of these storms have the storm surge while the north have the winds
- If the hurricane does go south, I'm really worried about the impact on infrastructure outside the facilities there
- Facilities can be fine but that doesn't matter if electric/water is out and/or your work force is at home cleaning up
- Every day the plants are down is tonnage the N.A. market is losing
- Paper trades yesterday
- December NOLA Urea Paper - $340 / $338 / $338
- March NOLA Urea Paper - $350
- Paper trades today
- December NOLA Urea Paper - $340 / $340 ($1 HIGHER than settlement)
- Physical trades yesterday
- October NOLA Urea Physical - $331
- November NOLA Urea Physical - $333
- Physical trades today
- Loaded NOLA Urea Physical - $332
- November NOLA Urea Physical - $334 / $335
- Loaded NOLA DAP Physical - $582.50
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