10/7/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- Talk of the town continues to be the India urea purchase tender offer information
- Still trying to wrap my head around that L1 west coast offer
- This is going to be tough for India
- I never want to use terms like "impossible" because there is always a chance, but whatever the term is for just below impossible, I would use that for India's chance of having any other west coast offers drop their price to sell
- Just hard to see this trend resulting in any significant tonnage
- Literally won't be surprised if they only secure the west and east coast L1's
- Needless to say, we need to be on India urea purchase tender watch already...
Paper trades today
- December Middle East Urea Paper - $390 ($5 HIGHER than settlement)
- November CFR Brazil Urea Paper - $395 (no open interest)
- December Egypt Urea Paper - $415 (same price as Friday sale)
North America
- All NA eyes should be on Hurricane Milton
- Hurricane Helene caused a decent amount of damage, and that was just a glancing blow
- This hurricane can be much, much worse
- This thing is taking a direct west to east shot at Tampa
- It is also rapidly growing with expectations of it being a Cat 4 or 5 by landfall
- Obviously the public devastation could be huge
- But we need to consider the fertilizer POV
- With so much of Florida's phosphate production based on the projected path of this storm, this could hurt
- Even if the facilities are largely unscathed, think about the workers
- Their focus needs to be on their homes/families/friends/etc.
- If their attention is focused on that for weeks, then the facility sits idle
- Then think of what could happen from an infrastructure POV
- Water, electricity, etc. can all be impacted by this storm
- There are a lot of layers to this...and fall season is right around the corner
- Paper trades today
- October NOLA Urea Paper - $335 ($2.50 HIGHER than settlement)
- Physical trades today
- Loaded NOLA MAP Physical - $625
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