7/19/2024 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
Keeping it short to end the week. Technically, I'm supposed to be off today...but you know how it is.
International
- Nothing to really update
- Paper trades this morning
- None observed
North America
- Urea values showing some signs of life once again this morning with July jumping
- Otherwise, still pondering phosphate demand this fall
- I am not overly worried about the cornbelt
- Income/yields in that region means it shouldn't have a huge effect
- However, start looking at more of the "fringe" states
- Very quickly, you will see that the yields are just not there to provide enough cash flow
- Last year, the Kansas average was only 119 bushels per acre
- In comparison with IL, that was 87 bushels LESS per acre or around $350 - $400/acre less income
- Now, I fully understand the demand difference between IL and KS
- However, when you start to look at the sum of ALL the fringe states, it becomes a real number that needs consideration
- As we have been saying for a while, this needs to be a state by state, county by county, farmer by farmer conversation on what will be needed
- Paper trades this morning
- None observed
- Physical trades this morning
- July NOLA Urea Physical - $305 / $306 / $307
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