Coffee Futures Settled Lower
Coffee futures extended their decline today, with arabica prices closing near session lows, now down 28.75 cents from yesterday’s high basis March 2025. Commercial activity remained very limited, as reports from origins indicate that internal markets have been effectively locked up over the past two days due to heightened volatility in the C market.
Looking ahead, industry buyers are expected to emerge between 305 and 285, a range aligning with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Adding to the uncertainty, news circulated of another large trade house estimating Brazil’s 2025/2026 arabica crop at 40 million bags. This broad range of crop estimates will likely sustain market uncertainty and drive continued price volatility.
The market now faces the challenge of pricing in the forward crop while rationing arabica demand accordingly. As benchmarks, March 2025 traded to a high of 348.35and the U5/Z5 spread to 13.65-cent premium. Meanwhile the arabica/robusta arb peaked near 100 cents, narrowing to 87 cents in today’s trading.
At the time of writing this:
USDBRL 5.9551 -1.52%
USDCOP 4,374.612 +0.14%
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
46,475
ICE Robusta
Volume:
16,340
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
810
Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
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