H25 Copper arb historically inflated
H 2025 COMEX Copper vs. LME Copper spread: a red flag is in place. The focal point of this study is an historic overbought condition. The RSI (lower pane; measure of overbought) is above 73, which is at an extremely inflated level. This condition should not last much longer; presenting a form of a short-term selloff at the least in the coming sessions, with COMEX underperforming.
What are we saying? Essentially, that the spread is at an historic overbought level, and that should not last much longer, providing a scaling form of selling. The prior scenarios (purple line) led to a much-needed pause in upside action.
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