By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
In February 2026, global fertilizer markets are being reshaped by geopolitics rather than traditional demand cycles. China’s expected absence from urea and phosphate exports and Iran’s return to nitrogen production are redrawing trade routes and altering price risk. As of mid-February, supply visibility remains fragile despite steady planting demand. The balance of power in nitrogen markets is shifting toward policy decisions in Beijing and geopolitical stability in Tehran.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, has spent years tracking global nitrogen and phosphate trade flows across multiple supply cycles. His direct monitoring of export volumes, policy shifts and production outages gives him a distinct vantage point on how geopolitical decisions translate into immediate price consequences for global fertilizer markets.
China fertilizer export restrictions are creating a measurable gap in global urea and phosphate availability. Josh Linville states that "the expectation… is that they will not be exporting any phosphate or urea until August of 2026", removing millions of tons from normal trade flows. Consequently, global buyers must source supply from a narrower pool of exporters, increasing regional price sensitivity and freight volatility. Despite the low probability of reversal, Linville cautions that if China reassesses stockpiles and demand, it could "very easily repeal that export ban", a shift that would likely trigger rapid global price declines.
Iran nitrogen production returning to full rates is tempering some of the bullish momentum in urea markets. Linville underscores Iran’s significance by noting, "they are the third largest urea exporter in the world", confirming its structural role in global nitrogen trade. As a result, renewed output could ease tightness in key importing regions, particularly if volumes reach consistent export channels. However, Linville also stresses the fragility of this supply, warning that production can "go back off just as quick as they started up", meaning geopolitical tension continues to embed volatility into nitrogen pricing.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer
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